新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济影响的评估：基于GTAP模型的实证Assessment of Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on China's Economy:An Empirical Study Based on GTAP Model
朱启荣;孙明松;杨伟东;
摘要(Abstract)：
新冠肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来发生的最为严重的重大突发公共卫生事件,经过我国人民的共同努力,新冠疫情已得到有效控制。文章运用GTAP模型评估了新冠肺炎疫情对我国宏观经济和产业的影响,并检验我国应对疫情的对策效果,得到以下结论:疫情对GDP、居民收入和消费支出、社会福利、资本净收益率和外贸的负面影响较大,对我国总产出水平的负面影响也比较明显;若将"增加技能型劳动力供给""增加资本供给""降低企业税费"与"提振消费"的对策方案并用,能够大幅减少上述负面影响。
关键词(KeyWords)： 新冠肺炎疫情;经济影响;应对措施;GTAP模型
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金资助项目(17BJY068);; 山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2017MG031)
作者(Author): 朱启荣;孙明松;杨伟东;
Email:
DOI: 10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2020.21.018
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